Winter storm watch issued for New Jersey and blizzard watch issued for New York City; forecasters say blizzard conditions could occur with wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph
Don't put the snow blowers away yet.
A powerful March nor'easter could deliver as much as 18 inches of snow and possible blizzard conditions across parts of New Jersey early next week, depending on what track the storm takes.
Forecasters from the National Weather Service and other weather agencies are predicting the storm system will come together late Monday and strengthen as it moves up the Atlantic coast on Tuesday.
Although computer guidance models do not agree on the precise track and intensity of the coastal storm -- two key factors that will make a huge difference in whether New Jersey gets pounded by snow or ends up with very little snow -- forecasters say residents should be prepared for heavy snow, powerful winds and some coastal flooding.
In its first official snowfall forecast for the anticipated storm, the National Weather Service is calling for as much as 12 to 18 inches of snow in northern New Jersey, 8 to 12 inches in much of Central Jersey and 4 to 6 inches in parts of South Jersey from late Monday night through late Tuesday night.
The areas with the highest probability of getting heavy snow are north and west of the Interstate 95 corridor.
Here's how much snow the National Weather Service is predicting across most of New Jersey from late Monday night through late Tuesday night. Snow projections for northeastern New Jersey and New York City are included in the map below. (National Weather Service) AccuWeather is calling for 6 to 12 inches of snow in North Jersey, where there's a potential for blizzard conditions on Tuesday.
And NY NJ PA Weather, a private forecasting company based in Freehold, is predicting as much as 14 to 24 inches of snow -- with some isolated pockets of 30 inches -- in northwestern New Jersey. The company predicts a swath of 10 to 20 inches of snow between Philadelphia and New York City, with 6 to 12 inches in areas closer to the Jersey Shore and 2 to 6 inches in southeastern New Jersey.
In advance of the storm, the National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for all of New Jersey, except for Cape May County, effective from 8 p.m. Monday through 8 p.m. Tuesday. A blizzard watch has been issued for New York City and Long Island.
Forecast not set in stone
"We're still dealing with a lot of uncertainty right now," said Mitchell Gaines, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's regional forecast office in New Jersey. "We could still have big changes in the track and in the intensity."
Gaines said he expects forecasters to have a better handle on the storm's path and strength on Sunday, but as of now there's a potential for the nor'easter to be a big nasty snowstorm or a less severe coastal storm that delivers more rain than snow.
One of the key factors, he noted, is the exact track the storm ends up taking. A slight shift closer to the New Jersey coast or further out in the Atlantic Ocean could mean a huge difference in the storm's impact on the Garden State.
"Fifty to a hundred miles could mean two totally different things," Gaines said.
Here's how much snow the National Weather Service is predicting in Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic and Union counties in New Jersey, along with New York City, Long Island and the lower Hudson Valley. (National Weather Service) If the storm tracks offshore, just east of the Atlantic coast, New Jersey is likely to see higher snow totals, Gaines said. If the storm tracks inland instead of offshore, many parts of New Jersey would likely see more rain or mixed precipitation than snow because warm air from the ocean would be cutting into the cold air over land.
Temperatures across New Jersey are expected to range from the mid-20s to the low 30s on Tuesday, continuing the streak of colder-than-normal March weather.
Although the storm forecast could change between now and Tuesday, Gaines encourages New Jerseyans to start preparing for the worst-case scenario of heavy snow, moderate coastal flooding and damaging winds that could cause power outages.
"Make sure you have an emergency plan in place in case the highly impactful event comes through in the Tuesday timeframe," he said.
The potential for a winter storm Monday night through Tuesday night is becoming more likely. Here is what we know and don't know so far. pic.twitter.com/nh8NivvKiS
-- NWS New York NY (@NWSNewYorkNY) March 11, 2017
Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.