"It is a tricky forecast for the weekend," said Valerie Meola, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly. Watch video
A storm system that's expected to take shape this weekend is likely to saturate New Jersey with rain, but it could start out and end as a sloppy mix of rain, sleet and snow.
That's the latest word from forecasters who have been analyzing computer models that keep shifting the location of the expected storm track and the range of temperatures.
"It is a tricky forecast for the weekend," said Valerie Meola, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly. "Right now it looks like we could see rain through a good part of the area. For the northern areas, it could be more tricky. There could be snow, even a little bit of freezing rain and maybe some sleet at the beginning."
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That would be late Friday night into early Saturday morning.
Even in higher elevation areas of New Jersey, which tend to get more snow because of lower temperatures, the precipitation is expected to change to all rain by Saturday afternoon, when temperatures will likely be rising from the low 30s into the low 40s.
But it could switch back to a mix of rain and snow in some northern sections of the state as the storm winds down Saturday night and temperatures drop back down near the freezing mark, said Carlie Buccola, a meteorologist at the weather service office in Upton, N.Y., which handles forecasts for Bergen, Passaic, Essex, Hudson and Union counties.
As of now, "It's definitely not an all-snow storm," Buccola said, noting that the temperatures are expected to be warm enough to favor rain over snow.
Tom Kines, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, agrees.
"It looks like it's going to be mainly rain," Kines said. "It's not out of the question Friday night, when it first starts off, some snow could be mixed in across the northern part of the state."
The moisture will be coming from a low-pressure system moving from the Gulf Coast region towards the Cape Hatteras area of North Carolina, then up along the Atlantic coast, Kines said. Although our region should get mostly rain, by the time the storm system moves further north, colder air will be in place to bring snow to parts of New England.
"At least the northern half of New England should get some snow -- potentially a lot of snow," Kines said. "It is the type of storm where if we had enough cold air in place it certainly would give us problems."
Forecasts as far out as three or four days could always change, so Meola advises Jerseyans, especially those planning to do any traveling this weekend, to keep an eye on the latest forecast.
Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality. Find NJ.com on Facebook.
